Preclosure Safety Analysis for a Prospective Yucca Mountain Conceptual Design Repositoryby C. W. Ma, Bechtel Natl, Inc, United States,
L. J. Jardine, Bechtel Natl, Inc, United States,
Abstract: A preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed for the prospective Yucca Mountain conceptual design repository. A new methodology to quantify radioactive source terms was developed and applied in the analysis. The study identified 42 event trees comprising 278 accident scenarios. Thee maximum offsite dose evaluated in this study is about 1,000 mrem. For the majority of the accident scenarios, either the offsite dose is less than 100 mrem or the probability of occurrence is less than 1 × 10-9/yr. Only 11 accident scenarios with a dose larger than 100 mrem and an associated probability greater than 1 × 10-9/yr were identified. A more detailed follow-on analysis for seismic events of various severity was also performed, and similar results were obtained. Therefore, based on the results of this analysis, no significant risk to the general public was identified during the preclosure period for the conceptual repository design.
Subject Headings: Risk management | Probability | Radioactive wastes | Conceptual design | Accidents | Safety | Trees | Seismic tests
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