Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydropower Planning

by Walter O. Wunderlich,
James E. Giles,

Abstract: Power system operators must deal with various types of uncertainties. Some are related to inputs, such as system load and water supply, while others pertain to the system itself, such as available capacity. The system load can change almost continuously, while its capacity and energy change with power unit availability and streamflow. According to the nature of the uncertainties they are treated differently. Ways of dealing with uncertainties are discussed. They affect system scheduling, generation costs and reliability. Examples include loss-of-load probability, expected value of hydro energy-in-storage, minimum required energy-in-storage, expected future cost and expected energy unserved.

Subject Headings: Hydro power | Electric power | Uncertainty principles | Load bearing capacity | Load factors | Energy loss | Probability | Power plants

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