Stochastic Modeling and Generation of Droughts

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by Ding-Chin Wang, Colorado State Univ, United States,
Jose D. Salas, Colorado State Univ, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering

Abstract: Stochastic simulation was used for deriving drought properties of the Poudre River, Colorado and the Red River, North Dakota. The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model and a threshold non-linear model were compared based on whether the historical droughts were reproduced. Five hundred samples of synthetic flows were generated by each model and drought statistics were determined. It was found that the ARMA (1,0) model reproduces droughts of the Poudre River quite well. However, for the Red River, although the ARMA (1,1) model passes all the usual tests, when comparing the drought statistics it performs poorly. On the other hand, the threshold model was found to reproduce quite well both covariance and drought properties.

Subject Headings: Droughts | Stochastic processes | Hydrologic models | Rivers and streams | Mathematical models | Statistics | Autoregressive moving average models | Model tests | North America | United States | North Dakota | Colorado

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