Alternative Methods of Generating Hydrologic Data for Reservoir Optimizationby Donald K. Frevert, Bureau of Reclamation, United States,
R. Wayne Cheney, Bureau of Reclamation, United States,
Abstract: Given an historically based set of natural flows for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, a series of 16 indexed sequential traces 78 years in length were derived using a 'wrap around' approach starting with 1906 and changing the starting year by an additional five years in each trace. Another series of 16 stochastic traces (each one 78 years in length) were generated using the Bureau of Reclamation's LAST, (Lane's Applied Stochastic Techniques) computer package. The two sets of traces were compared for statistical properties including ranges, means, variances and correlation structure. Each set of traces was then run through the CSUDP optimization model to provide a comparison of the results. Reclamation's version of the CSUDP model developed at Colorado State University was set up to model the Colorado River system and utilizes a dynamic programming approach to evaluate an optimal reservoir operating strategy for power generation. Results are compared and the advantages and disadvantages of each method evaluated.
Subject Headings: Optimization models | Hydrologic data | Reservoirs | Hydrologic models | Stochastic processes | Statistics | Dynamic models | Hydro power | Rivers and streams | Colorado River
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