Computer Simulation of the Long-Term Operation of the Manitoba Hydro Systemby Harold M. Surminski, Manitoba Hydro, Canada,
Abstract: The System Simulation Model is a deterministic long-term planning model used to simulate reservoir operation and energy allocation in the Manitoba Hydro system. The model uses the method of cycling historic streamflow patterns through a series of load years to calculate monthly energy production for alternative sequences of system expansion. A rule curve for system firmness is developed based on the criterion of most adverse hydrologic conditions occurring in any year in the future. A heuristic rule is used to simulate economic operation by determining quantities of interruptible export energy while minimizing the use of expensive non-hydraulic energy. Several shortcomings of the model are listed and techniques for enhancing the model are suggested.
Subject Headings: Computer models | Power plants | Simulation models | Hydrologic models | Hydro power | Streamflow | Economic factors | Electric power | North America | Manitoba | Canada
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