The Validation Problem—Historical Developmentsby Jack R. Benjamin, Jack R. Benjamin & Associates, United States,
Abstract: Validation of a probability consists of the estimation of the reliability of the probability. Validation is important when probabilities are based on data, rather than theoretical exercises. Although the validation issue has been a part of all applications of probabilistic concepts to structural engineering, it has not been generally considered a real issue in the past because of the way that applications developed. Conventional mathematical statistics does not offer an adequate solution to validation. Bayesian concepts yield a solution but the methodology conflicts with that of conventional statistical procedures. A possible way of circumventing the issue exists by focusing on comparing the results of standardized analyses rather than solving the problem directly.
Subject Headings: Probability | Validation | Failure analysis | Statistics | Concrete structures | Structural analysis | Material failures
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