Stage-Frequency Analysis of Closed-Basin Lakesby Lawrence H. Woodbury, Houston Engineering Inc, United States,
T. Giorgis Goitom, Houston Engineering Inc, United States,
Abstract: Devils Lake in North Dakota is used as a case study for the model development and application. The basis of the relationship developed in this study is the separation of the annual maximum lake level into an average level and a within-year fluctuation component. A time series model of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) family was identified and validated for the annual incremental storage time series. Then by using simulation and the concepts of 'mass curve' and 'range analysis' a set of maximum lake volumes over a planning horizon were generated and the corresponding extreme value distribution was obtained. A maximum annual average lake level-frequency relationship was then obtained from the volume-frequency relationship. Within-year maximum fluctuations about the average elevations was separately analyzed. The frequency distributions of maximum average lake levels and within-year fluctuations were superimposed to obtain a useful form of elevation-frequency relationship for the lake.
Subject Headings: Lakes | Frequency distribution | Autoregressive moving average models | Time series analysis | Case studies | Model analysis | Mathematical models | North America | North Dakota | United States
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