Reliable Operation of Hydro-Thermal Power Systemsby Timothy D. Scheibe, Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA,
Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA,
Edward G. Altouney, Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA,
Abstract: The demonstrated model allows planners to account for both operating and shortage costs, subject to a constraint on the system failure rate. In addition, the optimal long-term operation of joint hydro-thermal systems requires a method that recognizes the fundamental differences between the climatic-based failures to which hydropower systems are most susceptible, and the mechanical failures affecting thermal units. Generally, the failure of thermal units can be considered independent, while hydro units may well fail jointly due to the regional nature of droughts. Implicit stochastic programming (also known as Monte Carlo dynamic programming) is demonstrated for optimization of long-term operation of a hypothetical system consisting of 3 hydropower plants and 4 thermal plants. The procedure uses a variation of probabilistic simulation to evaluate the reliability of the system configuration. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the inflows are incorporated into the procedure through a stochastic streamflow generator.
Subject Headings: System reliability | Hydro power | Power plants | Thermal effects | Failure analysis | Energy infrastructure | Electric power | Stochastic processes | Computer programming | Europe | Monaco | Monte Carlo
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