Probability Based Evaluation of Spillway Capacityby Thomas A. Fontaine, Univ of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA,
Kenneth W. Potter, Univ of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA,
Abstract: Spillway adequacy could be evaluated more objectively if estimates were available of the probabilities of discharges up to the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). As a first step in making such estimates, we have developed a method to estimate the probability of rainfalls up to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The method uses historic rainfall data from storms which have occurred in a meteorologically homogeneous region incorporating the drainage basin of interest. It is based on the assumption that these storms, subject to an appropriate adjustment of magnitude, have equal probability of occurring anywhere in the region. We have applied this method to a location in the upper midwestern United States.
Subject Headings: Probability | Spillways | Floods | Rain water | Rainfall | Drainage basins | Storms | Mid-West states
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