A Probabilistic Method for Determination of the Required Capacity of Reservoirsby Hormoz Pazwash, Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Wayne, NJ, USA,
Abstract: Evaluation of water supply potential of multi-purpose dams generally involves determination of the required capacity of reservoirs for new dams and analysis of safe yield or reliable yield for existing reservoirs. These parameters are commonly computed by using a mass curve (a deterministic approach) or an stochastic method of generating traces of data (an indirect probability method). This paper presents a practical method for determination of the required capacity-draft relation for reservoirs based on a probability analysis of the actual streamflow records. This method was employed for prefeasibility study of 15 dams, situated in different parts of Korea. Design of reservoir capacities was based on a 20 year, two year long low flows which were distributed among months of year according to a selected non-dimensional model. The method was not only useful in analyzing the required capacity of each reservoir for a wide range of demand, but provided to be a valuable key in ranking them in terms of their potential for satisfying the projected future water demands.
Subject Headings: Reservoirs | Probability | Streamflow | Curvature | Parameters (statistics) | Dam safety | Stochastic processes | Water supply | Asia | South Korea
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