A System Framework for Engineering Risk Analysis

by L. Duckstein, Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA,
J. Bernier, Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA,

Abstract: A mathematical system framework is developed to model a series of criteria called performance indices (PI) related to engineering risk in water resources. Such criteria include reliability, vulnerability, and resilience. Within the system framework, engineering risk is a combination of PI called a figure of merit (FM). Each design or operation scheme is characterized by a risk FM and other FMs. An example of investigation of supply reliability and risk in reservoir management illustrates the concept, which helps to give a perspective on various approaches to water-related risk analysis.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Systems engineering | Water resources | Frames | Mathematics | Mathematical models | Hydrologic models

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