The Credibility of Probabilities: An Application to Water Resources Policy

by Peter A. Morris, Applied Decision Analysis Inc, Menlo, Park, CA, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources


This paper focuses on one particularly troublesome issue in decision analysis, the issue of the credibility of subjective probabilities. A water resources policy problem is used to illustrate some of the preliminary results of ongoing research sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Subject Headings: Sensitivity analysis | Water resources | Federal government | Probability | Public policy | Uncertainty principles

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