Verification of a Supply Reliability Model

by Benjamin F. Hobbs, Case Western Reserve Univ, Cleveland, OH, USA,
Gina K. Beim, Case Western Reserve Univ, Cleveland, OH, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Forum '86: World Water Issues in Evolution

Abstract: Three versions of an analytical model for estimating the reliability of a water supply system including capacity components and small amounts of finished water storage are presented. Simplifying assumptions ease computation, but cause model estimates to be only approximate. Two of the models place bounds upon the system's true probability of failure, while the third assumes that failure state durations are exponentially distributed. The models also yield estimates of the expected frequency and duration of failures. A test case for a small system is presented in which the models are verified by comparing them with Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that the models, particularly the third version, provide reliability estimates that are adequate for planning purposes.

Subject Headings: Water storage | Failure analysis | Verification | Hydrologic models | Mathematical models | Simulation models | Model analysis | Europe | Monaco | Monte Carlo

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