Uncertainties in Groundwater Transport Modelingby Eric W. Strecker, (A.M.ASCE), Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Walnut, Creek, CA, USA,
Wen-sen Chu, (A.M.ASCE), Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Walnut, Creek, CA, USA,
Dennis P. Lettenmaier, (M.ASCE), Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Walnut, Creek, CA, USA,
Abstract: Using synthetic data from a hypothetical aquifer, the effects of data availability and data uncertainty were studied by the combined use of a parameter identification (PI) algorithm and the United States Geological Survey's contaminant transport code. The study results found that the accuracy of transport modeling depends very much on the estimates of transmissivity. It was also found that after the installation of a critical number of observation wells, additional data collected over time was more important to better prediction of contaminant plume than adding more wells. The study results suggest that with our present level of data availability, incorporation of uncertainty analyses in groundwater contaminant transport modeling is highly recommended.
Subject Headings: Hydrologic models | Uncertainty principles | Model analysis | Groundwater | Pollutants | Water supply systems | Data processing | Hydrologic data | Groundwater pollution | North America | United States
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