An Integrated Conceptual Expert System for Flood and Water Pollution Managementby William James, McMaster Univ, Hamilton, Ont, Canada,
Alan Dunn, McMaster Univ, Hamilton, Ont, Canada,
Abstract: One particularly practical role for an expert system (ES) is as an interface between a complex computer model and an inexperienced user or novice. The software is applied to the USEPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM3), particularly the Runoff module in the PC implementation known as PCSWMM3. The new software conducts a sensitivity and error analysis on parameters which are not unique, or specifically known or which may be subject to variability for various reasons. Output functions considered include the peak flows, volumes of outflows, time to peak outflow, number of exceedances of a specified flow, duration of exceedance, and hydrograph shape. First order sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of input variability are carried out by computing a large matrix of sensitivity co-efficients. Input variables are ranked according to sensitivity and to error. The analysis is geared to monitor those parameters which most affect the outcome. The resultant output hydrograph should consist of a fuzzy band of likely results as opposed to a definite value. Such graphical presentation will allow the novice to visually evaluate model uncertainty.
Subject Headings: Sensitivity analysis | Computer models | Hydrologic models | Expert systems | Mathematical models | Water pollution | Hydrographs | Computer software
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