Impacts of Indexed Sequential Hydrological Modeling on Hydrogeneration Capacity Estimation

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by John W. Labadie, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO, USA,
Darrell G. Fontane, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO, USA,
Jose D. Salas, Colorado State Univ, Fort Collins, CO, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Waterpower '85:

Abstract: Indexed sequential modeling (ISM) has been proposed by the Western Area Power Administration as an alternative approach to developing firm marketable capacity (i. e. , project dependable hydropower capacity (PDC)) in contrast with the usual approach of basing PDC on the most adverse period of record. ISM allows a probabilistic approach to be taken by extracting a series of overlapping short-term sequences directly from the historical record, which includes the most adverse period, and then simulating reservoir operations over this interval for each sequence. As a means of evaluating ISM, the New Melones Reservoir system in the Federal Central Valley Project of California was selected as a case study for comparing hydropower output generated from ISM input versus use of stochastically generated inflows.

Subject Headings: Hydrologic models | Hydro power | Hydrogen | Power plants | Electrical systems | Model analysis | Reservoirs | Electric power | Probability | Case studies | North America | California | United States

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