Energy Forecasting Techniques: An Overview

by Stephen S. George, XENERGY Inc, San Francisco, CA, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Energy Forecasting

Abstract:

This paper provides an overview of the primary forecasting techniques employed by electric and natural gas utilities to predict energy consumption and demand. Although the techniques discussed can be used for a variety of purposes, the focus of the paper is on forecasting for capacity planning and policy analysis. The four primary techniques discussed are time-series analysis, econometric modeling, end-use modeling and a hybrid approach combining both econometric and end-use techniques. A number of issues faced by the forecaster when selecting a particular approach are also described, as are the advantages and disadvantages of the various techniques. These advantages and disadvantages are summarized at the end of the article.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Electric power | Energy consumption | Mathematical models | Utilities | Time series analysis | Power demand

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