Forecasting the Demand for Electricity: An Examination of Alternative Approaches

by Mark E. Rodekohr, Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Energy Forecasting

Abstract:

This paper examines several approaches to forecasting national-level electricity demand. The various approaches are briefly examined, and the strengths and weaknesses of each are discussed. A introductory section reviews historical growth in electricity demand and notes differences between sectors and regions. This serves to provide a context for the types of variations the forecasting techniques are required to explain. The results of this analysis indicate that no single forecasting approach can be described as best, but that some approaches are more appropriate than others, depending on the time period being projected and the purpose of the forecast; i. e. , policy analysis or pure load determination.

Subject Headings: Electric power | Forecasting | Power demand | Electrical systems | Urban and regional development | Project management | Load factors

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