A Methodology for Forecasting APM Operation and Maintenance Trends Using Existing Experience

by Richard E. Ward, West Virginia Univ, Dep of, Industrial Engineering, Morgantown, WV, USA,
Michael J. Eveges, West Virginia Univ, Dep of, Industrial Engineering, Morgantown, WV, USA,
Robert J. Bates, West Virginia Univ, Dep of, Industrial Engineering, Morgantown, WV, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Automated People Movers: Engineering and Management in Major Activity Centers

Abstract: Operation and Maintenance responsibility for the Morgantown, West Virginia Automated People Mover (APM) was assumed by West Virginia University some nine years ago. The experience of the intervening years and the effect which such experience has had on operation and maintenance trends is presented. Learning curve theory, first used to study airplane production in the 1930's, is used as the basis for modeling operation and maintenance trends in the Morgantown system. Although new generation systems will be somewhat simpler in design, it is argued that the learning curves observed for Morgantown should not be too different from that soon to be experienced in other cities, and therefore offer good insight into what otherwise would be a very difficult forecasting problem.

Subject Headings: Maintenance | Curvature | People movers | Model analysis | Forecasting | Rail transportation | Automation | Colleges and universities

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