Storage Projection for Reservoir Systemsby Samuel K. Vaugh, Univ of Texas at Austin, Dep of, Civil Engineering, Austin, TX, USA,
David R. Maidment, Univ of Texas at Austin, Dep of, Civil Engineering, Austin, TX, USA,
Abstract: Two methods are studied for determining the probability distribution of future levels of storage in a reservoir system: transient analysis and Gould's probability matrix method. In transient analysis, historical monthly inflow and net evaporation sequences of 1 to 5 years length are routed through the reservoir system with fixed initial storage, monthly demand pattern, and operating policy to determine the probability distribution of storage in annual time increments for each reservoir and for the total system. In Gould's method, the annual flows are assumed independent and the steady-state probability distribution of storage is found using the same hydrologic data, demand pattern, and operating policy. These procedures are applied to the six-reservoir Highland Lakes System on the Lower Colorado River, Texas. The time reliability of supply of the specified annual demand is evaluated as a function of initial storage.
Subject Headings: Water storage | Reservoirs | Probability | Probability distribution | Hydrologic models | System analysis | Hydrologic data | Transient response | North America | Colorado River | Texas | United States
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