Stochastic Analysis and Modeling Levels of a Land-Locked Lake for Resource Development

by G. Padmanabhan, North Dakota State Univ, Dep of, Civil Engineering, Fargo, ND, USA,
Lawrence H. Woodbury, North Dakota State Univ, Dep of, Civil Engineering, Fargo, ND, USA,
Ramey O. Rogness, North Dakota State Univ, Dep of, Civil Engineering, Fargo, ND, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water for Resource Development

Abstract: Lakes are valuable natural resources that can be tapped for recreational, agricultural and other extensive lake side developments. Natural variability of lake levels is an important factor to be considered in utilizing lakes as resources. The Devils Lake in North Dakota is a land-locked lake whose fluctuation has been a cause for concern. Present high water is threatening surrounding highways and other facilities. The lake level has gone through several highs and lows. Severe lows occurred in the drought years of 1930's. In this study, annual lake levels of Devils Lake are investigated for their stochastic characteristics. A valid stochastic time-series model is developed to preserve the 'persistence' characteristics of the historic data. The model is tested for its predictive ability.

Subject Headings: Lakes | Stochastic processes | Model analysis | Data processing | Model tests | Historic preservation | Time series analysis | Water-based recreation | Natural resources | North America | North Dakota | United States

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