Risk Analysis in Water Quality Control

by G. T. Orlob, Univ of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA,
S. Simonovic, Univ of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water for Resource Development


Design of facilities for the control of water quality is usually predicated upon some explicit expectation of performance. In reality, unit operation efficiency, system operation, model predictive capability and target quantity are uncertain and should properly be expressed in terms of an expected performance within specified limits and an allowable variance in such a way that the reliability of achieving the target can be determined. Assuming that costs can be identified with improving efficiency and performance, and that benefits can be ascribed to compliance with the quality target, then the problem can be defined as one of optimization within probabilistic constraints. The fact that such an approach has been infrequently attempted in water quality management attests to some inherent difficulties in formulation and solution of the problem. Recent progress in the use of risk/reliability programming in the design and operation of water quality control systems is reviewed.

Subject Headings: Water quality | Quality control | Risk management | Water pollution | Reservoirs | Control systems | Algorithms

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