Schedule Development under Stochastic Scheduling

by Keith C. Crandall, (M.ASCE), Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Univ. of California, Berkeley, Calif.,
John C. Woolery, (M.ASCE), Superintendent; Turner Construction Co., San Francisco, Calif.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Construction Division, 1982, Vol. 108, Issue 2, Pg. 321-329

Document Type: Journal Paper


A most effective use of Monte-Carlo schedule generation is to create a control schedule of the planning, design and construction of a major project. The normal Monte-Carlo process will yield a distribution for the time required for project completion, activity criticality and list potential critical paths. A methodology is described whereby milestone dates can be created at selected node points within the project without the necessity to maintain an entire record of each possible outcome at these nodes. The methodology utilizes the first four moments about the mean and the Edgeworth Series Method. Examples are presented to demonstrate the methodology.

Subject Headings: Scheduling | Stochastic processes | Monte Carlo method | Critical path method | Moment (mechanics) | Construction methods | Construction management

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