Seismic Risk Analysis of Infrastructural Systems

by Hector Monzon-Despang, Doctoral Candidate and Research Asst.; John A. Blume Earthquake Engrg. Center, Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif. 94305,
Haresh C. Shah, (M.ASCE), Prof. and Dir.; John A. Blume Earthquake Engrg. Center, Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Stanford Univ., Stanford, Calif. 94305,


Serial Information: Journal of the Technical Councils of ASCE, 1982, Vol. 108, Issue 1, Pg. 23-Oct


Document Type: Journal Paper

Abstract: This paper discusses the quantitative evaluation of seismic damage and risk for lifelines and other infrastructural systems. The central subject is the determination of the likelihood of attaining various Levels of system impairment, due to earthquakes, and what to do with that information. Seismic damage is measured in terms of system global response to damaging events. Possible parameters to describe global response are mentioned though not discussed at length (references are given). The emphasis is placed in the philosophy of using such parameters as seismic damage measures. The general structure of the algorithms, the assumptions to be made, and the modeling techniques to implement the analysis are discussed. Risk analysis, using the concepts of reliability and expected performance, is addressed. It is concluded that the required analysis techniques are currently founded on a great deal of uncertain and subjective information or both. Nevertheless, these methods do provide a very valuable insight into the seismic performance of infrastructural systems.

Subject Headings: Seismic effects | Seismic tests | Damage (structural) | Risk management | Information management | Parameters (statistics) | System analysis | Lifeline systems

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