Replacement-Lock and Dam No. 26: Projecting Waterborne Commerce-Inland Navigation

by DuWayne A. Koch, Head; Economic factors Section, Planning Branch, St. Louis District, U.S. Army Corps of Engrs., St. Louis, MO,

Serial Information: Journal of the Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering Division, 1970, Vol. 96, Issue 1, Pg. 9-14

Document Type: Journal Paper


The determination of a lock's capacity necessitates projecting commodity tonnages expected to pass through that lock in the future. For long-range projections of waterborne commerce passing through a limited reach of the river, a market-oriented commodity group analysis is best. Given different objectives, a more appropriate procedure may be correlation analysis or an analysis based upon trend data. Whereas aggregate correlation analysis has many advantages for a large universe, for a small reach it has many shortcomings. Likewise, trend analysis may be appropriate for short-run estimates, but can be misleading for most projects over 5 yrs. Most important, however, is that for a limited reach, causation should be established. This can best be accomplished through a clear definition of the commodity group, the careful identification of areas of supply and demand, and the quantification of this demand (over a period of time) as it pertains to barge transportation.

Subject Headings: Navigation dams | Navigation (waterway) | Correlation | High-rise buildings | Aggregates | Terminology and definition | Barges

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