Transit Trip Estimation - San Francisco Bay Area

by John F. Curtin,

Serial Information: Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division, 1967, Vol. 93, Issue 4, Pg. 215-230

Document Type: Journal Paper


By 1975, transit patronage and operating speed will increase by 26% and 36% respectively in the San Francisco Bay Area. The traffic estimates embrace coordination of three local systems—BARTD, Muni, and AC Transit—and are based upon estimating models developed for 1965 and projected to 1975. The data processed quantifies and correlates the socioeconomic factors which generate transit use-transit systems, characteristics of riders, and spatial organization of land use. Initially, independent and correlated data on travel characteristics of riders in 474 zones, travel time ratios, and transit routes, were coded to develop the amount of riding on each link of 128 routes. Comparative analyses with auto and highway data provided insight into relative attractiveness of transportation modes. Correlation of relevant variables by simple and multiple regression determined reliable measures of trip production and attraction by zones (gravity model) and of trip distribution between zones (transit trip end model). Comparable models for 1975 transit use produce informed estimates incorporating projected network and demographic data.

Subject Headings: Traffic models | Travel time | Trip distribution | Travel modes | Travel patterns | Routing (transportation) | Bays | Spatial data | San Francisco Bay Area | California | United States

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