Mathematical Model for Flood Risk Evaluation

by Richard M. Shane,
Walter R. Lynn,

Serial Information: Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 1964, Vol. 90, Issue 6, Pg. 1-20

Document Type: Journal Paper


A mathematical model is developed for use with partial-duration data that relates design flow to several different measures of risk. The analysis is based on the Poisson probability law and the probability theory of sums of a random number of random variables. Finally, a statistical procedure is presented for estimating design equation parameters from a partial-duration series of data. A graphical procedure for solving these equations is also presented.

Subject Headings: Mathematics | Mathematical models | Hydrologic models | Floods | Risk management | Flow measurement | Probability | Parameters (statistics)

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