Time-Dependent Stochastic Model of Floods

by Michel North, Research Engr.; Hydraulics Lab., Federal Inst. of Tech., Lausanne, Switzerland,


Serial Information: Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 1980, Vol. 106, Issue 5, Pg. 649-665


Document Type: Journal Paper

Abstract:

The proposed model is based on the streamflow partial duration series (PDS). Both the occurrence time and the magnitude of the floods (instantaneous hydrograph peaks) are time-dependent random variables. An estimation method, based on the maximum likelihood concept, is also proposed. The derivation of the law of extremes from the basic model shows the strong influence of the time-dependence assumptions on the extreme values. Application of the model to a 38-yr series of floods on the Melezza River at Camedo, Ticino (Southern Switzerland) shows good agreement between theoretical and observed values.



Subject Headings: Stochastic processes | Floods | Time dependence | Hydrologic models | Streamflow | Hydrographs | Rivers and streams | Light rail transit | Switzerland | Europe

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