Stochastic Process for Extrapolating Concrete Creep

by Erhan Cinlar, Prof. of Applied Industrial Engrg., and Mathematics; Northwestern Univ., Evanston, Ill.,
ElMamoun Osman, Instr. of Civ. Engrg.; Univ. of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia; formerly, Grad. Research Asst., Northwestern Univ., Evanston, Ill.,
Zdeněk P. Bažant, (M.ASCE), Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Northwestern Univ., Evanston, Ill.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, 1977, Vol. 103, Issue 6, Pg. 1069-1088

Document Type: Journal Paper

Discussion: Jordaan Ian J. (See full record)
Closure: (See full record)


Creep of concrete is modeled as a process with independent increments of locally gamma distribution. The process is transformed to a stationary gamma process. The mean prediction agrees with the deterministic double power law established previously. Infinite divisibility of the increment distribution is assumed. This is justified by additivity of deformations and of stresses, and also by considerations of the microscopic mechanism of creep, assuming creep to be due to migrations of widely spaced solid particles along micropore passages whose length is statistically distributed. The treatment of creep as a stochastic process allows extracting considerable information from measurements even on one specimen, although a greater number of specimens is preferable. The main use of the model is in extrapolation of short time creep data into long times, and calculation of confidence limits. Methods of determining process parameters from creep test data are given. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate reasonable agreement with test data.

Subject Headings: Creep | Stochastic processes | Concrete | Data processing | Stationary processes | Gamma function | Field tests | Deformation (mechanics) | Europe | Monaco | Monte Carlo

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