Design Lead Time Predictions

by Earl Rogers, (M.ASCE), Sr. Transportation Engr.; California Dept. of Transportation, Sacramento, Calif.,

Serial Information: Transportation Engineering Journal of ASCE, 1976, Vol. 102, Issue 4, Pg. 737-744

Document Type: Journal Paper


Changing Federal and state requirements for developing transportation projects are having an adverse effect on estimates of engineering costs. Environmental laws in particular are rendering historical engineering cost data unreliable for manpower planning and budget preparation. A method that avoids historical experience has been developed for forecasting design lead times and for predicting the distribution pattern of project man-hours on major freeway projects. A computer can generate lead time plots from recent accounting records and other project-related information. The basic accounting data is less than 1 yr old yet the lead time plots span up to 10 yr. As quickly as new design procedures are adopted, they can be reflected in the lead-time curves. This method saves the long wait for historical project cost data to accumulate.

Subject Headings: Construction costs | Computing in civil engineering | Federal government | Transportation engineering | Environmental issues | Laws | Engineering history | Budgets

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