Stochastic Considerations in Thunderstorm Modeling

by Ross B. Corotis, (M.ASCE), Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Northwestern Univ., Evanston, Ill.,


Serial Information: Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 1976, Vol. 102, Issue 7, Pg. 865-879


Document Type: Journal Paper

Abstract:

A mesoscale stochastic model of thunderstorm activity is developed to simulate the hourly development of both air mass and squall-line storms. This modeling technique is based on Poisson occuring thunderstorms, Markov cloud formation and movement, and rainfall-producing convective cells, and is intended to provide a more complete theoretical understanding of the thunderstorm process. The rain cells form according to a prescribed probabilistic model within clouds on an hourly basis, with a relatively high likelihood of generation of a new cell in the vicinity of a previous cell. The cells are described by a center magnitude with a Gumbel distribution and an exponential or power law decay formula. The stochastic model is programmed for simulation in a fairly general program that allows many different variables in the thunderstorm process to be either prescribed, or simulated from appropriate probability distributions.



Subject Headings: Storms | Stochastic processes | Rainfall | Simulation models | Markov process | Power transmission | Uncertainty principles

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