Delphic Predictions and Cross Impact Simulation

by Jarir S. Dajani, (M.ASCE), Asst. Prof. of Civ. Engrg. and Policy Sci.; Duke Univ., Durham, N.C.,
Gorman Gilbert, Asst. Prof.; Dept. of City and Regional Planning, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C.,

Serial Information: Journal of the Urban Planning and Development Division, 1975, Vol. 101, Issue 1, Pg. 49-59

Document Type: Journal Paper


The writers review two techniques that are potentially useful tools in urban and regional planning. These techniques are the Delphi method for obtaining subjective predictions about a changing future through a panel of experts and Cross-Impact Simulation for combining a number of discrete subjective forecast with a number of similar related forecasts to produce alternative descriptions of the future. The potential of this class of techniques for planners and engineers who are involved in managing the future is pointed out. The use of the techniques is specifically relevent to situations where subjective judgments have to be made about complex interrelated events. The paper presents mathematical examples of the utilization of these two complimentary methods.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Urban development

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